Overview of the WSM Project Progress

1         Abstract

This document is a summary overview of the project progress thus far, including a description of the work undertaken and the most meaningful project results obtained.

2         Introduction - Project Objectives

The WaterStrategyMan Project aims at contributing to the solution of water shortage problems in arid and semi-arid regions of Southern Europe. Some issues related to the arid conditions are recurrent in these regions [1],[2],[13]. In most, the presence of continuous sources of water stress is combined with periodic droughts; the limited amount of rainfall is not sufficient to support the local agriculture. New infrastructure needs to be built to deal with the issue of ensuring and providing an adequate supply. Yet infrastructure planning is made on the basis of average years and deviations from those, but cannot be made to accommodate infrequent/rare events and thus these events are not dealt with adequately.

This in turn raises the question of adequate institutions and administration that enable the development of such infrastructure as well as the imposed economic burden. Further compounding the problem, the coastal regions, where the unevenly distributed population tends to concentrate, are an attractive tourist destination. Massive numbers of tourists arrive and stay for a short time period and infrastructure planning needs to take into account the seasonal peak; but this creates the issue of recovering the cost of the infrastructure, and who will pay for it, as part of the year-round maintenance and use.

The local societies often mistrust the relevant authorities and/or other interested parties, and therefore tend to view the potential for joint actions in a negative light, preferring to address the issue locally. In fact, in a number of regions there are no clear water policies defined, and a general lack of long term planning with respect to the development and conservation of aquatic resources. The available resources tend to be exploited in a manner that suggests no systematic long term management. The different demands for irrigation, domestic use, tourism and industry use are constantly competing for the scarce resource (due to many reasons, such as differential water pricing, importance to the economy coupled with their strategic significance for further industrialization and modernization).

The decline of water resources and increasing demand for freshwater cause threats to the environment and provoke conflicts between competing and conflicting users, even in comparatively water-rich areas. Appropriate water management tools, decision-making practices and thoroughly-planned interventions are necessary for increasing the availability of supply and/or managing the growing demand, and the project seeks to develop and evaluate strategies and guidelines towards integrated water resources management in the Southern European Regions.

The steps in which this task is being undertaken are the following:

1. The formulation of a Typology for arid and semi-arid regions, highlighting the commonalities and gaps among regions of southern Europe, and defined in terms of water deficiency types,

2. The conceptualising of these into the corresponding water management Paradigms, (Paradigm is a school of thought on prioritizing during the selection of Policy Options for the Management of Water Resources) relevant to the regional context, and addressing:

• Water supply options,
• Water uses,

• Economic and environmental frameworks, and

• Water cost recovery policies.

3. The selection of a set of representative regions that will be used to analyse and evaluate Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) options,

  4. The definition of six complementary and non-overlapping Case Studies according to the:

• Regional context,
• Paradigm context, and

• Water deficiency type of the analyzed regions.

5. The adaptation of tools able to analyse quantitative and qualitative impacts and intersectoral competitive water use, and to describe potential responses and water policy consequences,

6. The suggestion of appropriate responses to water stress and implementation alternatives,

7. The development of improved water management strategies, and

8. The formulation of widely applicable guidelines and protocols for their implementation.

3         Project Structure

The Project is structured in four distinct but interrelated phases (fig. 1). The first two Phases, now completed, involve the Analysis and development of a Methodology, while Phase 3 deals with the Case Studies and the Formulation of Strategies, and Phase 4 involves the Synthesis and Dissemination of project results.

The project in its entirety is undertaken in thirteen Work packages (fig. 2).

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Figure 1: Project Phases

Figure 2: Work Package Interrelationship

3.1      Research approach

The adopted research approach is based on the successive generalization resulting from systematic analysis of specific conditions. The analysis alternates between the generalized and the specific element (see fig. 3). On the basis of a generalised concept for aridity, the analysis of specific regions tried to provide "lessons" that were used to develop Regional Models, to be further analyzed through the Case Studies.

The Case Studies are expected to yield results that can be used for a broad spectrum of similar regions, in the form of Strategies for Integrated Water Resources Management, Guidelines and Protocols of their Implementation.

Figure 3: The Project Logic

4         Project results

The first two phases of the Project have seen the development of a well structured methodology for the analysis of water stress conditions in terms of Indices, the determination of Causal Interrelationships in a DPSIR scheme (Drivers, pressures, State, Impacts and Responses [16]), and the incorporation of Data structures in a GIS database. The analysis has been applied in the Case Study countries, and data, databases and DPSIR schemes have been developed for 15 water stressed regions within those, with the purpose of moving into the next phases of developing common implementation guidelines.

The Diagnostic/Descriptive analysis was undertaken in 4 levels:

1. The 1st Level involved the Comparative analysis of water stress conditions in six Southern European and Mediterranean countries (Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and Israel), and included:

• Data collection at the country and regional level, and
• The formulation of a Matrix of circumstances for 15 regions facing water stress conditions selected and analyzed within these 6 countries. These regions, selected on the basis of facing water stress, were:

• In Greece, Attica, Thessaly and the Cyclades Islands,
• In Italy, Belice basin and Emilia-Romagna,
• In Spain, Doñana and the Canary islands,
• In Portugal, Algarve, Sado and Guadiana,
• In Cyprus, Akrotiri, Germasogeia and Kokkinochoria
• In Israel, Tel Aviv and Arava.

2. The 2nd Level was the development of a Typology of water deficiency types based on the characteristics of the analyzed regions,

3. The 3rd Level involved a DPSIR analysis of the causal interrelationships formed under conditions of water scarcity in the analyzed regions, and

4. The 4th Level involved the formulation of Paradigms of water resources management. For each of the regions analyzed, the Dominant Paradigm of Water Management was determined, and the Emerging Paradigm trends were formulated, as proposed by local stakeholders.

4.1      Use of the DPSIR framework in IWRM

A detailed analysis was pursued for the 15 selected regions, in terms of water management practices.

The causal interrelationships occurring were formulated in a DPSIR scheme (see fig. 4), and special attention was given in the establishment of common and well structured set of indicators and indices that allowed the presentation of the causalities between Pressures/Drivers and Impacts.

Figure 4. The DPSIR scheme adopted in the investigation of causal interrelationships for the water stress conditions in the 15 regions

4.2      An analysis of Water Stress Conditions

Water stress conditions and the spectrum of circumstances were analysed in the 6 countries and within the specific regions. The main observation made was that aridity should be understood in a wider context encompassing both natural and man-made processes. Various concepts have been used to exemplify a prevailing confusion among such terms which signify dry environments or water deficiencies. The terms vary all the way from the extremes of desert to aridity, to drought and to temporary water shortages [9],[15]. There are four different terms that are important to the initial separation between physical and social conditions with regard to what one can summarily label water deficiencies:

• Aridity, signifying a permanent natural condition and a stable climatic feature of a given region,
• Drought, referring to a temporary feature of the climate or to regular or unpredictable climatic changes,
• Water shortage, a term that can be understood mostly as a man-made phenomenon reflecting the concern with temporary and small area water deficiencies, and

• Desertification, as a process of alteration of the ecological regime often associated with aridity and/or drought but principally brought about by man-made activities which change the surrounding ecosystem to a significant degree.

At the same time, responses to water deficiency problems, technological and social, as well as legal mechanisms for carrying out management schemes tend to fall under the following four major categories:

• Strong incentives for efficient or new uses, including economic benefits, redefinition of the doctrine of beneficial use, etc.
• Structural changes, such as new organizational arrangements, creation of new water agencies, etc.
• Regulatory counter incentives, such as stricter enforcement and pricing policies.
• Changes in water lifestyles and cultural practices.

4.3      A Typology of Water deficiency types

The range of circumstances in the 15 regions was analyzed on the basis of a series of well-defined indicators describing various issues of water management, such as water availability, water quality, use patterns and types of demand pressures (seasonal, permanent), pricing systems and tariffs, social capacity building, and institutional framework (water competent authorities, decision making processes and development priorities).

On the basis of the spectrum of water management circumstances and the DPSIR causal interrelationships in the 15 regions, a typology for water stress conditions was proposed (see fig. 5) that follows the above analysis of water stress conditions. The typology categorises the 15 regions into four broad Types with respect to the processes leading to water stress, and to the water stress context - man-made or natural processes, causing temporary or permanent water deficiency.

Figure 5. The proposed typology of water stress conditions

4.4      Selection of Case Study regions

Following the elaboration of water deficiency types and the DPSIR causal interrelationship analysis, Case Study regions were selected from the 15 proposed and analysed regions. A Case Study involves the application and analysis of a Water Resources Management Paradigm [8],[10],[11],[12] on the selected Region and its specific characteristics. It was important to select a set of regions that represent the widest possible range of water stress issues and conditions and their combinations, in order to ensure that the lessons learned from the Case Studies would have the widest applicability possible. To that end, the following six regions were selected:

• Paros Island in the Cyclades complex was selected in Greece, where the main water stress issue is the peak in demand during the summer months, due to the high tourist influx onto the island. The existing infrastructure capacity is stretched during that period and is often insufficient to cover demand at peak times, leading to temporary shortages that in return are damaging to tourism.
• Cyprus was eventually selected as a whole, in order to analyse the effects of the competition for water resources between tourism and agriculture, the two major sources of income of the island, and determine the potential for a compromising water management solution that will be beneficial to both sectors.

• Ribeiras do Algarve was selected in Portugal, where despite the relative abundance of water resources, salinity of the underground aquifers is a rapidly intensifying problem due to the over-abstraction of water for use in golf courses and other tourism-related uses.
• Tel- Aviv and the Arava region were eventually both selected for Israel, to be analysed with respect to the conflicts arising between the provision of water for urban water supply and for agriculture irrigation in a country where water is a very scarce and valuable resource.
• Belice Basin in Italy was selected, where the major water stress reason is the peak in demand during the summer, due to irrigation demands in the region.
• Finally, Tenerife in the Canary Islands was selected in Spain, where the year-round high water demand is caused by a tourist influx much larger than the local population, demanding large infrastructure that nevertheless needs to be paid for by the locals.

4.4.1      The Paros Case Study - stakeholder consultation

Paros Island has been used as a model study to be used as a pilot for the subsequent analyses of the Case Study regions. A survey of the "Base Case", the current state of the water system as it presently stands was made, and data was collected on:

• Water resources and hydrological data, including rainfall.
• Demand and consumption data and forecasted trends.

• Infrastructure, networks and water allocation data.

In addition, all available past and present proposed management plans were reviewed. This data was used to formulate the dominant and emerging patterns in the Water Management Paradigm of Paros (fig. 6), based on a DPSIR analysis of the responses to water scarcity.

Figure 6. DPSIR analysis and the Dominant and Emerging Paradigms in Paros Island, Greece

A very important source of information, however, involved field work and consultation with the local stakeholders and end users. Their opinions and perceptions on issues spanning the appropriate allocation of available resources, the potential for water resources development and the effectiveness of the current practices were collected, and integrated into the Case Study approach. It became apparent that the approval and the involvement of the local stakeholders and end users are imperative, in order to maximise the success potential of any given strategy.

 Special attention was therefore given to their perception of how water resources management should be effected in Paros, and how water stress should be faced.

Naturally, the perceptions of the Water Utility and those of the end-users presented differences. The Paros Water Utility suggested that appropriate solutions for facing water stress involved the combined use of supply enhancement measures, demand reduction measures and some socioeconomic interventions, such as increased pricing (fig. 7).

Figure 7. The Paros Water Utility proposal for Water Resources Management

Consultation with the water users of Paros however, farmers and room/hotel owners, showed that the majority believed that mostly supply enhancement measures could provide a solution to the water scarcity issues, while water saving technologies and conservation awareness campaigns could make a small but significant contribution (fig. 8).

Increased pricing was not seen as a viable solution and was rejected by most when asked.

 Following these consultation results, it was decided that the consultation process should not only be taken into account in the formulation of strategies, but that it should also be once again repeated for the formulation of the guidelines and protocols of implementation of these strategies, making the most of the stakeholders' experience and expertise.

Figure 8. The Paros water users proposal for Water Resources Management

4.5      The DSS and GIS Database

The GIS Decision Support System developed aims to assess the state of a water resources system in terms of sources, usage, water cycles (pathways) and environmental quality in a simulation environment that responds realistically to external and internal modifications. It has the potential to evaluate the effects of actions and measures taken during the simulation, on the basis of the different scenarios, alternatives and policies (table 1).

Within the simulation, water resources are allocated according to a set of demand and supply priorities reflecting the pricing system, social preferences, environmental constraints and development priorities. The Decision Support System assesses water systems based on the three principles of Integrated Water Resources Management:

• Economic efficiency,

• Equitability, and

• Environmental sustainability.

Table 1. Summary of DSS capabilities

There are many ways of classifying implementation approaches or policy options but of special importance for the Decision Support System are the social system responses conceived as comprised of four types of measures:

1. Supply measures, intended to increase available water quantities during drought.

2. Measures aimed at decreasing water demands through various conservation techniques and use limitations.

3. Measures needed to mitigate impacts.

4. Methods able to produce strategies for management through mixes of control measures seeking optimum (efficient and effective) solutions.

The main instruments, also called "Policy Options" for the purposes of the project, used for developing IWRM strategies in the selected Case Studies that are being analysed in their application by the DSS include:

1. Supply management through structural interventions which attempt to enhance fresh water supply (traditional or pioneering ones such as desalination or water reuse).

3. Finally, socio-economic instruments such as:

• Pricing, and
• Changing of developmental regional priorities.

The DSS can model conditions in a given area/region and be used to estimate how much water is needed to cover the existing and projected demand, to determine what interventions are necessary, as well as when and where, and their cost (fig. 9). It can provide indicators of performance for selected actions under each potential availability and demand scenario, and rank all available scenarios based on these indicators [3],[4],[5],[6],[14]. It provides the user with the ability to assess the functionality and performance of the water system within the entire region of application as well as at individual points of demand/interest. The DSS capabilities however do not extend to the assessment of the performance of the managing authority, or the social impacts of the actions applied.

Figure 9. The Decision Support System conceptual model

5         Future Steps

5.1      Strategy formulation

The remaining steps until the end of the project involve the completion of the Strategy Formulation Phase (phase 3) and of the Synthesis and Dissemination Phase (phase 4). The critical stage of Strategy formulation that is just being initiated includes the development and assessment of coherent water management scenarios on water demands and availability that will be used to evaluate alternative water management strategies, set against the base case in each case study.

The scenarios include 3 components: a demand scenario component that involves demand forecasting, a hydrological scenario component based on existing hydrological series and/or hypothetical time series, and finally an intervention, meaning a management measure, action or sequence of actions.

These interventions refer to both supply and demand-side measures, as well as economic instruments, that are available for the management of water resources. The approach is adaptable, to suit regions with similar characteristics, as opposed to rigid and tailor-made for the specific region of application.

The comprehensive scenarios will be evaluated against the base case to provide a ranking of selected measures and/or strategies with respect to their performance and applicability in the conditions of the water system analysed in the DSS simulation (fig. 10).

Figure 10. Steps in Scenario and Strategy Evaluation

The next step, the Formulation of Strategies [7] for IWRM will involve the planning of combinations of such interventions/ management measures within a set timeframe, and re-evaluating the resulting strategies in their entirety. This will be done using the DSS, as previously done for each measure individually, and will enable the ranking of the selected strategies for each Case Study and the selection of the best suited approaches.

The criteria used for the evaluation of the strategies are assigned user-defined weights, ensuring that the applicability of the developed strategies covers not only a wide range of circumstances, but can also be assessed based on the individual priorities assigned to different aspects of water resources management by the end-users and stakeholders.

5.2      Synthesis of results

The final stage of the project will be the development of Guidelines and Protocols of Implementation for Integrated Water Resources Management Strategies. The Strategy formulation results will be elaborated into two sets of "instructions" to be disseminated to water sector stakeholders and decision makers.

• The Guidelines will provide a step-by-step analysis of the specific tasks to be undertaken within the framework of a strategy and their specifications (relative costs, duration, and project lifetime). They will analyze the specific strategy into actions required within the selected water management options, set within a suitable but flexible time framework. They will provide the results of the strategy evaluation as well as the constraints and risks involved in each identified Paradigm:

  • The evaluation of the lessons learned by the analysis,

  • The selection of appropriate scenarios for water resources management,

  • The identification of common characteristics and patterns in the alternative strategies, and

  • The synthesis of the identified strategies and development of general guidelines applicable to water deficient regions.

• The Protocol of Implementation for a Strategy will provide the set of accompanying measures required to create the Enabling Environment for its implementation. They will encompass the sets of prerequisite measures that are required for the implementation of each strategy, as those are elaborated by the Stakeholders, and step-by-step instructions for their execution. The protocols will incorporate the guidelines and the identified ranges of existing circumstances and will provide codes for accepted as appropriate and correct policies of integrated water planning following the:

  • Evaluation of water management inefficiencies identified by the analysis, and

  • Evaluation of the water management institutional structures and their inadequacies.

6       References

[1] European Environment Agency (EEA), Sustainable use of Europe's water? State, prospects and issues, Environment Assessment Series, 2001.

[2] Global Water Partnership Technical Advisory Committee, Integrated Water Resources Management, TAC Background Papers No.4, Global Water Partnership, March 2000.

[3] Mediterranean Commission on Sustainable Development (MCSD), Indicators for the sustainable development in the Mediterranean region, PlanBleu, 2000, URL: www.planbleu.org

[4] OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), Environmental indicators, towards sustainable development, OECD, 2001.

[5] Plan d'Action pour la Méditerranée, Observatoire du Sahara et du Sahel, Les Indicateurs de l'Economie de l'Eau, Ressources et Utilisations, Document de réflexion, Plan Bleu 1996.

[6] World Bank, Environmental Performance Indicators, A Second Edition Note, Environmental Economic Series, World Bank Environment Department, 1999.

[7] World Bank Group, A Guide to the Formulation of Water Resources Strategy, World Bank Technical Paper no. 263, World Bank, November 1994.

[8] Allan, Tony, Millennial Water Management Paradigms: Making IWRM Work (Source: www.mafhoum.com/press/53aE1.htm).

[9] Bailey, RG., Ecoregions: The Ecosystem Geography of Oceans and Continents. New York, Springer- Verlag, 1998.

[10] Gleick, Peter. H., The Changing Water Paradigm: A look at Twenty-first Century Water Resources Development, Water International, Volume 25, Number 1, Pages 127-138, March 2000.

[11] Grigg, Neil S., A New Paradigm for Water Management, Colorado State University (Source: www.ufrgs.br/iph/simposio/grigg.doc).

[12] Kuhn, Thomas, S., The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Second Edition, Enlarged, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1970 (1962).

[13] Margat J., Vallee D., Water Resources and uses in the Mediterranean Countries: Figures and Facts, Blue Plan, 2000.

[14] Rogers, P., Bhatia, R., and Huber, A., Water as a Social and Economic Good: How to Put the Principle into Practice, Global Water Partnership Technical Advisory Committee, TAC Background Papers No.2, Global Water Partnership, 1998.

[15] Vlachos, E.C., "Drought Management interfaces", Annual ASCE Meeting, Las Vegas, Nevada, 15p, 1982.

[16] Walmsley, J., Framework for measuring sustainable development in catchment systems, Environmental Management, Vol. 29. No2. 2002.